Multimodal Machine Learning-based Knee Osteoarthritis Progression Prediction from Plain Radiographs and Clinical Data

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common musculoskeletal disease without a cure, and current treatment options are limited to symptomatic relief. Prediction of OA progression is a very challenging and timely issue, and it could, if resolved, accelerate the disease modifying drug development and ultimately help to prevent millions of total joint replacement surgeries performed annually. Here, we present a multi-modal machine learning-based OA progression prediction model that utilizes raw radiographic data, clinical examination results and previous medical history of the patient. We validated this approach on an independent test set of 3,918 knee images from 2,129 subjects. Our method yielded area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.79 (0.78-0.81) and Average Precision (AP) of 0.68 (0.66-0.70). In contrast, a reference approach, based on logistic regression, yielded AUC of 0.75 (0.74-0.77) and AP of 0.62 (0.60-0.64). The proposed method could significantly improve the subject selection process for OA drug-development trials and help the development of personalized therapeutic plans

Effectiveness of progressive tendon-loading exercise therapy in patients with patellar tendinopathy:a randomised clinical trial

Objective To compare the effectiveness of progressive tendon-loading exercises (PTLE) with eccentric exercise therapy (EET) in patients with patellar tendinopathy (PT). Methods In a stratified, investigator-blinded, block-randomised trial, 76 patients with clinically diagnosed and ultrasound-confirmed PT were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive either PTLE or EET. The primary end point was clinical outcome after 24 weeks following an intention-to-treat analysis, as assessed with the validated Victorian Institute of Sports Assessment for patellar tendons (VISA-P) questionnaire measuring pain, function and ability to play sports. Secondary outcomes included the return to sports rate, subjective patient satisfaction and exercise adherence. Results Patients were randomised between January 2017 and July 2019. The intention-to-treat population (mean age, 24 years, SD 4); 58 (76%) male) consisted of patients with mostly chronic PT (median symptom duration 2 years). Most patients (82%) underwent prior treatment for PT but failed to recover fully. 38 patients were randomised to the PTLE group and 38 patients to the EET group. The improvement in VISA-P score was significantly better for PTLE than for EET after 24 weeks (28 vs 18 points, adjusted mean between-group difference, 9 (95% CI 1 to 16); p=0.023). There was a trend towards a higher return to sports rate in the PTLE group (43% vs 27%, p=0.13). No significant between-group difference was found for subjective patient satisfaction (81% vs 83%, p=0.54) and exercise adherence between the PTLE group and EET group after 24 weeks (40% vs 49%, p=0.33). Conclusions In patients with PT, PTLE resulted in a significantly better clinical outcome after 24 weeks than EET. PTLE are superior to EET and are therefore recommended as initial conservative treatment for PT

Association between clinical findings and the presence of lumbar spine osteoarthritis imaging features:A systematic review

OBJECTIVE: Spinal osteoarthritis is difficult to study and diagnose, partly due to the lack of agreed diagnostic criteria. This systematic review aims to give an overview of the associations between clinical and imaging findings suggestive of spinal osteoarthritis in patients with low back pain to make a step towards agreed diagnostic criteria.DESIGN: We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, and CINAHL from inception to April 29, 2021 to identify observational studies in adults that assessed the association between selected clinical and imaging findings suggestive of spinal osteoarthritis. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale and the quality of evidence was graded using an adaptation of the GRADE approach.RESULTS: After screening 7902 studies, 30 met the inclusion criteria. High-quality evidence was found for the longitudinal association between low back pain (LBP) intensity, and both disc space narrowing and osteophytes, as well as for the association between LBP-related physical functioning and lumbar disc degeneration, the presence of spinal morning stiffness and disc space narrowing and for the lack of association between physical functioning and Schmorl's nodes.CONCLUSIONS: There is high- and moderate-quality evidence of associations between clinical and imaging findings suggestive of spinal osteoarthritis. However, the majority of the studied outcomes had low or very low-quality of evidence. Furthermore, clinical and methodological heterogeneity was a serious limitation, adding to the need and importance of agreed criteria for spinal osteoarthritis, which should be the scope of future research.</p

Costs and effectiveness of a brief MRI examination of patients with acute knee injury

The aim of this study was to assess the costs and effectiveness of selective short magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in patients with acute knee injury. A model was developed to evaluate the selective use of MRI in patients with acute knee injury and no fracture on radiography based on the results of a trial in which 208 patients were randomized between radiography only and radiography plus MRI. We analyzed medical (diagnostic and therapeutic) costs, quality of life, duration of diagnostic workup, number of additional diagnostic examinations, time absent from work, and time to convalescence during a 6-month follow-up period. Quality of life was lowest (EuroQol at 6 weeks 0.61 (95% CI 0.54–0.67)); duration of diagnostic workup, absence from work, and time to convalescence were longest; and the number of diagnostic examinations was largest with radiography only. These outcomes were more favorable for both MRI strategies (EuroQol at 6 weeks 0.72 (95% CI 0.67–0.77) for both). Mean total costs were 2,593 euros (95% CI 1,815–3,372) with radiography only, 2,116 euros (95% CI 1,488–2,743) with radiography plus MRI, and 1,973 euros (95% CI 1,401–2,543) with selective MRI. The results suggest that selective use of a short MRI examination saves costs and potentially increases effectiveness in patients with acute knee injury without a fracture on radiography

Accelerated menopausal changes as human disease model 'FOCUM' for the development of osteoarthritis and other degenerative disorders:protocol for a prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION: The incidence of degenerative disorders, including osteoarthritis (OA), increases rapidly in women after menopause. However, the influence of the menopause is still insufficiently investigated due to the slowness of menopausal transition. In this study, a novel human model is used in which it is expected that menopausal-related changes will occur faster. This is the Females discontinuing Oral Contraceptives Use at Menopausal age model. The ultimate aim is to link these changes to OA and other degenerative disorders, including cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, osteoporosis and tendinopathies. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a pilot observational prospective cohort study with 2 years of follow-up. Fifty women aged 50–60 who use oral contraceptive (OC) and have the intention to stop are included. Measurements are performed once before stopping OC, and four times thereafter at 6 weeks, 6 months, 1 year and 2 years. At every time point, a questionnaire is filled in and a sample of blood is drawn. At the first and final time points, a physical examination, hand radiographs and a MRI scan of one knee are performed. The primary OA outcome is progression of the MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score. Secondary OA outcomes are the development of clinical knee and hand OA, development of knee OA according to the MRI definition, and progression of radiographic features for hand OA. Principal component analysis will be used to assess which changes occur after stopping OC. Univariate and multivariate generalised estimating equation models will be used to test for associations between these components and OA. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by the Medical Ethics Committee of the Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam (MEC-2019-0592). All participants must give informed consent before data collection. Results will be disseminated in national and international journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NL70796.078.19

MRI follow-up of conservatively treated meniscal knee lesions in general practice

Objective: To evaluate meniscal status change on follow-up MRI after 1 year, prognostic factors and association with clinical outcome in patients with conservatively treated knee injury. Methods: We analysed 403 meniscal horns in 101 conservatively treated patients (59 male; mean age 40 years) in general practice who underwent initial knee MRI within 5 weeks of trauma. We performed ordinal logistic regression analysis to analyse prognostic factors for meniscal change on follow-up MRI after 1 year, and we assessed the association with clinical outcome. Results: On follow-up MRI 49 meniscal horns had deteriorated and 18 had improved. Age (odds ratio [OR] 1.3/decade), body weight (OR 1.2/10 kg), total anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) rupture on initial MRI (OR 2.4), location in the posterior horn of the medial meniscus (OR 3.0) and an initial meniscal lesion (OR 0.3) were statistically significant predictors of meniscal MRI appearance change after 1 year, which was not associated with clinical outcome. Conclusion: In conservatively treated patients, meniscal deterioration on follow-up MRI 1 year after trauma is predicted by higher age and body weight, initial total ACL rupture, and location in the medial posterior horn. Change in MRI appearance is not associated with clinical outcome

ICON 2019—International Scientific Tendinopathy Symposium Consensus: There are nine core health-related domains for tendinopathy (CORE DOMAINS): Delphi study of healthcare professionals and patients

Background: The absence of any agreed-upon tendon health-related domains hampers advances in clinical tendinopathy research. This void means that researchers report a very wide range of outcome measures inconsistently. As a result, substantial synthesis/meta-analysis of tendon research findings is almost futile despite researchers publishing busily. We aimed to determine options for, and then define, core health-related domains for tendinopathy. Methods: We conducted a Delphi study of healthcare professionals (HCP) and patients in a three-stage process. In stage 1, we extracted candidate domains from clinical trial reports and developed an online survey. Survey items took the form: ‘The ‘candidate domain’ is important enough to be included as a core health-related domain of tendinopathy’; response options were: agree, disagree, or unsure. In stage 2, we administered the online survey and reported the findings. Stage 3 consisted of discussions of the findings of the survey at the ICON (International Scientific Tendinopathy Symposium Consensus) meeting. We set 70% participant agreement as the level required for a domain to be considered ‘core’; similarly, 70% agreement was required for a domain to be relegated to ‘not core’ (see Results next). Results: Twenty-eight HCP (92% of whom had >10 years of tendinopathy experience, 71% consulted >10 cases per month) and 32 patients completed the online survey. Fifteen HCP and two patients attended the consensus meeting. Of an original set of 24 candidate domains, the ICON group deemed nine domains to be core. These were: (1) patient rating of condition, (2) participation in life activities (day to day, work, sport), (3) pain on activity/loading, (4) function, (5) psychological factors, (6) physical function capacity, (7) disability, (8) quality of life and (9) pain over a specified time. Two of these (2, 6) were an amalgamation of five candidate domains. We agreed that seven other candidate domains were not core domains: range of motion, pain on clinician applied test, clinical examination, palpation, drop out, sensory modality pain and pain without other specification. We were undecided on the other five candidate domains of physical activity, structure, medication use, adverse effects and economic impact. Conclusion: Nine core domains for tendon research should guide reporting of outcomes in clinical trials. Further research should determine the best outcome measures for each specific tendinopathy (ie, core outcome sets)

Predictive factors for new onset or progression of knee osteoarthritis one year after trauma: MRI follow-up in general practice

Objective: To prospectively evaluate prognostic factors for new onset or progression of degenerative change on follow-up MRI one year after knee trauma and the association with clinical outcome. Methods: Within a prospective observational cohort study in general practice, we studied a subgroup of 117 patients with acute knee trauma (mean age 41 years, 43% women). Degenerative change was scored on MRI at baseline and after one year follow-up. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate prognostic factors for new onset or progressive degenerative change on follow-up MRI. Association between new or progressive degeneration and clinical outcome after one year was assessed. Results: On follow-up MRI 15% of patients with pre-existing knee osteoarthritis showed progression and 26% of patients demonstrated new degenerative change. The only statistically significant prognostic variable in the multivariate analysis was bone marrow oedema on initial MRI (OR 5.29 (95% CI 1.64-17.1), p∈=∈0.005). A significant association between new or progressive degenerative change and clinical outcome was found (p∈=∈0.003). Conclusion: Bone marrow oedema on MRI for acute knee injury is strongly predictive of new onset or progression of degenerative change of the femorotibial joint on follow-up MRI one year after trauma, which is reflected in clinical outcome

Diabetes, Diabetic Complications, and Fracture Risk

Diabetes and osteoporosis are both common diseases with increasing prevalences in the aging population. There is increasing evidence corroborating an association between diabetes mellitus and bone. This review will discuss the disease complications of diabetes on the skeleton, highlighting findings from epidemiological, molecular, and imaging studies in animal models and humans. Compared to control subjects, decreased bone mineral density (BMD) has been observed in type 1 diabetes mellitus, while on average, higher BMD has been found in type 2 diabetes; nonetheless, patients with both types of diabetes are seemingly at increased risk of fractures. Conventional diagnostics such as DXA measurements and the current fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) risk prediction algorithm for estimating risk of osteoporotic fractures are not sufficient in the case of diabetes. A deterioration in bone microarchitecture and an inefficient distribution of bone mass with insufficiency of repair and adaptation mechanisms appear to be factors of relevance. A highly complex and heterogeneous molecular pathophysiology underlies diabetes-related bone disease, involving hormonal, immune, and perhaps genetic pathways. The detrimental effects of chronically elevated glucose levels on bone should be added to the more well-known complications of diabetes